Predicting the midterm election

Election nights on a newspaper’s copy desk are characterized by long waits for results followed by a frenzy of editing and headline writing. Now that I am teaching, I spend my election nights at home, getting results online and watching coverage on cable TV. The morning after, I’ll look for my newspaper to tie it all together and tell me what it all means.

Free pizza for the newsroom was one of the traditions of election night in the newsrooms where I worked. An “election pool” was another one. Those of us who chose to participate predicted the outcome of various races. The winner claimed bragging rights of being politically astute, although luck may have been involved too.

I can’t join one of those pools tonight, but I will offer my predictions here. To be clear, this is who I think will win, not who should win. My voting preferences are between me and my touch screen. And away we go:

U.S. SENATE
ALASKA: Murkowski over Miller
CALIFORNIA: Boxer over Fiorina
CONNECTICUT: Blumenthal over McMahon
DELAWARE: Coons over O’Donnell
FLORIDA: Rubio over Crist
KENTUCKY: Paul over Conway
NEVADA: Angle over Reid
NORTH CAROLINA: Burr over Marshall

U.S. HOUSE from North Carolina
DISTRICT 2: Etheridge over Ellmers
DISTRICT 4: Price over Lawson
DISTRICT 8: Johnson over Kissell
DISTRICT 13: Miller over Randall

CONTROL OF CONGRESS
HOUSE: Republicans, 230-205
SENATE: Democrats, 51-47 (and two independents)

PROPOSITION 19
California says NO to legalizing marijuana

GOVERNORS
CALIFORNIA: Brown over Whitman
FLORIDA: Scott over Sink
NEW YORK: Cuomo over Paladino (But either way, the rent will still be too damn high.)

UPDATE: On the day after, I’d call my performance as prognosticator fair to middling. In my newsroom experience, the day after an election is more difficult than the day of the election. Everyone is tired, and there’s no free pizza. Kudos to all of those who do this hard work. We readers appreciate it.

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